| 粮食安全下的河南省耕地压力预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 夏淼,李双奎,张越,吴清韶. 粮食安全下的河南省耕地压力预测分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(34): 89-94. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1114 |
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| 作者姓名： | 夏淼 李双奎 张越 吴清韶 |
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| 作者单位： | （;1.甘肃农业大学人文学院，兰州 730070；;2.郑州市中原土地储备中心，郑州 450000）; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金“西北民族地区村民自治问题研究”(09XZZ006)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 对河南省2002—2012年间耕地资源动态变化进行了定量分析，并应用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型，对未来10年间耕地压力变化进行了预测。结果表明：随着中原经济崛起，虽然一定数量耕地被建设占用，但耕地压力指数整体上还是呈现下降趋势，主要原因是粮食生产力在提高，政府在严控耕地数量基础上，通过土地复垦、整理、开发及一定范围的农业结构调整又补充了一定数量耕地，在未来10年，河南省耕地压力指数呈递减趋势，粮食供给大于需求，基本可以实现河南省粮食安全。
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| 关 键 词： | 杂优遗传 杂优遗传 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-04-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-12-01 |
Analysis and Forecast of Cultivated Land in Henan Province Under the Pressure of Food Security |
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| Affiliation: | (;1.The College of Humanities of Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070;2.Zhengzhou Zhongyuan Land Reserve Center, Zhengzhou 450000) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the authors analyzed the dynamic changes of cultivated land resource in Henan Province during 2002 to 2012 and used the GM(1,1) model to predict the changes of the land pressure indexes in the next 10 years. The results show that in the past few years, the pressure indexes of cultivated land are declining, although a certain amount of cultivated land is occupied with the economic growth of the central China. The main reasons are: the grain productivity is improving and the management efforts of cultivated land are effective with land reclamation techniques. In the next decade, the cultivated land pressure indexes will be reduced and the food supply is greater than demand, which can achieve food security. |
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| Keywords: | food security cultivated land pressure index Henan Province |
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