黑龙江流域白头鹤繁殖栖息地选择模型预测

白头鹤是中国国家Ⅰ级重点保护野生动物,世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)将其列为易危物种。目前仅知道白头鹤繁殖于中国黑龙江流域和俄罗斯西伯利亚东南部,但对其繁殖栖息地的具体研究尚不完善。为了掌握这一物种在东北亚地区的繁殖栖息地的分布及特征,更好地对该物种及其栖息地实施保护,2011—2013年在小兴安岭对白头鹤繁殖栖息地进行了调查,除新近采集的数据,还通过调查收取了过去近10年(2001—2010年)的白头鹤繁殖数据。本研究采用Salford Predictive Modeler、R等数据分析软件对收集到的繁殖数据建立模型(随机森林模型)进行预测,并使用地理信息系统(GIS)对预测的白头鹤繁殖区绘图,得到直观的繁殖分布预测图。结果表明:在景观尺度下,影响白头鹤繁殖栖息地的主要因素有3个,分别是海拔、坡度和坡向。进一步分析后得出结论:中等海拔(300~500m)、朝向东北且平缓(坡度小于2.4°)的泰加林区域是白头鹤最为适宜的繁殖区。由此结论以及研究区域内的GIS数据分析表明:在本研究区域内,白头鹤最适宜繁殖区(分布概率高于0.8)面积为6832km2,只占研究区面积的0.18%,估计能容纳2000~3000对白头鹤繁殖。绘图显示:只有少量的最适宜繁殖区(仅784km2)在保护区范围内,并且在白头鹤的繁殖分布地中存在大量的农田和水利设施。保护区面积的不足和严重的人为干扰是白头鹤在繁殖区内面临的主要问题。 

Distribution modeling of breeding hooded crane in ;Heilongjiang basin

The hooded crane ( Grus monacha ) is the first class national protected animal and is classified as vulnerable on the IUCN Red List. Except for the reports of its breeding habitats in Heilongjiang basin and southeastern Siberia, little research has been conducted to date regarding its essential habitat needs. To master the distribution and features of the hooded crane ’ s breeding habitat and better implement the protection of the species and its habitats, we carried out investigations of the breeding habitats of hooded crane in Lesser Xing’ an Mountains, northeastern China during 2011—2013. This study presents and analyzes the best available compiled nest data of hooded crane from the last decade ( 2001—2010 ) for the first time. The Random Forest model was built to analyze the crane ’ s breeding habitat on an international landscape level by using Salford Predictive Modeler and R. Then, the predicted breeding habitat was mapped in the geographical information system ( GIS) . The Random Forest model shows that the top three influential factors are elevation, slope and aspect, that is, cranes in the boreal taiga select slopes less than 2. 4°, elevation of 300—500 m and aspects towards northeast as their breeding habitats. This prediction map estimates the presence of 2 000—3 000 pairs of hooded crane breeding in area of 6 832 km2 ( approximately 0. 18% of the study area) . However, only a relative small area (784 km2 ) of the predicted breeding area is located in the currently protected areas, in which also exist quantities of farmland and water conservancy facilities. Human interference and the lack of protected area are the most serious problems this species faces with.