广东农产品价格波动特征、规律及趋势

改革开放以来,广东农产品价格波动日益增大,波动周期呈现不可重复性和非对称性特征,波动较大的 农产品有蔬菜,木材,黄豆,粮食,肥猪和食用植物油等总体而言,广东农产品价格波动表现出和粮食价格波动基本 一致与全国农产品价格波动情况大致相同,涨落周期与工业增长速度变动周期一致与广东居民消费价格指数同 方向变动以及与农业生产资料价格指数变动趋势相近等规律,随着工业化和城镇化进程加快,国际农产品市场的传 递效应日益明显,广东农产品价格将表现出短期波动加剧长期快速上涨的趋势.

Traits, law and trend of agricultural products' price in Guangdong province

Since the yeform and opening-up, the price fluctuation of agricultural products in Guangdong province has increased and the period of fluctuation shows nonrepeatability and asymmetry. Some agricultural products like vegetables, woods, soybean, grain, hog and edible vegetable oil appear higher volatility. In general, the price fluctuation shows following characters: it is basically consistent with the price fluctuation of grain, has the same trend as the whole country''s price fluctuation of agricultural products, has the same fluctuation cycle as the change of industrial growth rate, has the same variation trend as consumer price index and has the similar change with the price indices of means of agricultural production. With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, and increasingly big transmission effects of international price fluctuation, the price of agricultural products in Guangdong will appear the trend like higher volatility in the short run and rising rapidly in the long run.