Applying Local Measures of Spatial Heterogeneity to Landsat-TM Images for Predicting Wildfire Occurrence in Mediterranean Landscapes

In mountainous Mediterranean regions, land abandonment processes in past decades are hypothesized to trigger secondary vegetal succession and homogenization, which in recent years has increased the size of burned areas. We conducted an analysis of temporal changes in landscape vegetal spatial pattern over a 15-year period (1984–1998) in a rural area of 672.3 km² in Eastern Spain to investigate the relationship between local landscape heterogeneity and wildfire occurrence. Heterogeneity was analyzed from textural metrics derived from non-classified remote sensing data at several periods, and was related to wildfire history in the study area. Several neural network models found significant relationships between local spatial pattern and future fire occurrence. In this study, sensitivity analysis of the texture variables suggested that fire occurrence, estimated as probability of burning in the near future, increased where local homogeneity was higher.