| 大中型拖拉机需求量混沌特征分析及预测时效研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄玉祥,郭康权,朱瑞祥.大中型拖拉机需求量混沌特征分析及预测时效研究[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(8):135-139. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄玉祥 郭康权 朱瑞祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农林科技大学机械与电子工程学院,杨凌,712100;西北农林科技大学机械与电子工程学院,杨凌,712100;西北农林科技大学机械与电子工程学院,杨凌,712100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技攻关项目;中日据点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国大中型拖拉机需求量是一个复杂的非线性系统。该文在分析大中型拖拉机需求特点的基础上，建立了基于混沌理论的农业装备需求特性分析及预测时效模型。采用中国1952至2004年大中型拖拉机需求量的实测数据，重点研究了其需求系统的相空间重构、关联维数的确定和柯尔莫哥洛夫熵的计算。结果表明：中国大中型拖拉机需求为混沌系统，影响需求量的因素有1～12个，最大可预测的时效为8a。
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| 关 键 词： | 大中型拖拉机 需求分析 混沌理论 预测时效 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-6819（2007）8-0135-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/11/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 3/7/2007 12:00:00 AM |
Analysis of chaos characteristics and forecasting time-scale of the demand for big-medium-sized tractors |
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| Huang Yuxiang,Guo Kangquan and Zhu Ruixiang.Analysis of chaos characteristics and forecasting time-scale of the demand for big-medium-sized tractors[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2007,23(8):135-139. |
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| Authors: | Huang Yuxiang Guo Kangquan and Zhu Ruixiang |
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| Institution: | College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, China;College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, China;College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, China |
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| Abstract: | The demand for big-medium-sized tractors in China is a complicated non-linear system. Under the analysis of the characteristics of agricultural equipment demand system, a model of the demanding characteristics analysis and the research of predicting time-scale based on chaos theory were constructed. The paper focused on phase space reconstruction, correlation and Kolmogorov-sinaientropy applying the actual data of the domestic demand for big-medium-sized tractors from 1952~2004. The result showed that demand of agricultural equipment was chaos system, which indicated that there should have about 1~12 independent variables for describing demand change characteristics and the forecasting time-scale is about eight years. |
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| Keywords: | big-medium-sized tractors demand analysis chaos theory forecasting time-scale |
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