近52年西北干旱区极端温度事件季节性时空分析

利用西北干旱区83个气象站点1961—2012年逐日最低（高）气温资料，对其极端温度事件季节性时空变化规律进行分析与预测，以期更好地为其生态保护和农业生产服务。结果表明：(1)时间趋势上，日极端低（高）温均值呈上升趋势，尤其是1981年后升幅明显增加，冬秋季升温最显著；日极端低（高）温极低（高）值有增多趋势，其中暖昼（夜）日数有增加趋势，夜（昼）指数变化最快的季节为夏秋季；1979—1986年，上述指数变化趋势发生突变（冬季先开始）；除夏季日极端低温极低值外，其他指数在2013—2020年季节变化与1961—2012年的增减趋势一致。(2)空间分布上，暖昼（夜）日数最大值、冷昼（夜）日数最小值均在北疆分区，而内蒙-宁夏分区的增减速率变化最快；2013—2020年，新疆全境春季冷昼、冷夜日数急剧减少，内蒙-宁夏分区、南疆分区夏季日最低（高）气温极值急剧降低（上升）。

Extreme Temperature Events in Arid Region of Northwest China during 1961-2012: Seasonal Spatio-temporal Analysis

Based on daily temperature data (minimum, maximum) of 83 stations, spatial and temporal changes of extreme temperature events over arid region of northwest China were analyzed and predicted for the period 1961~2012, so as to better service for the ecological protection and agricultural production. (1) From the trend of time, the average minimum/maximum temperature(TMINmean/TMAXmean) had an ascending tendency, especially after 1981, winter and autumn are the most significant; Extra-minimum air temperature (TNn) and extra-maximum air temperature (TXx) had an raising trend, warm days (TX90p) and nights(TN90p) had an increasing trend, it was worthwhile to note that the most significant change above was the night indices of summer; Additionally, mutation were found firstly in winter during 1979~1986. Apart from the variation rate of TNn in summer, the seasonal and seasonal variations of the other indices in the period 2013-2020 are consistent with the increase and decrease in the period 1961-2012. (2)From spatial distribution, the maximum number of days (nights), the minimum number of cold days (nights) were in the Northern Division, while Inner Mongolia - Ningxia Division of the fastest rate of change; 2013-2020, Xinjiang In the Inner Mongolia - Ningxia and Nanjiang sub - regions, the extreme minimum (high) temperature extremes of the summer days decreased drastically (increased) in the cold days and cold nights.