新乡市耕地保护综合预警系统

通过建立基于耕地面积、质量和产能3个方面的耕地保护综合预警系统，对区域耕地综合保护状况进行临界警戒。采用负数原则方法划分警情阈值，建立多种模型分别计算各种原因所造成的耕地质量和产能变化。研究发现，耕地面积与产能之间为正比关系，但耕地质量与产能及面积之间均非正比关系，与耕地质量相比，耕地产能更能体现区域耕地的健康状况；耕地质量建设可以在耕地面积无法平衡的情况下提升区域耕地质量和产能；耕地面积、质量与产能是耕地保护的不同方面，集合3者的耕地保护综合预警可以全面准确地反映区域耕地保护的效果；对耕地保护综合预警结果和原因的分析可以为区域耕地保护提供更有针对性的措施。因此，耕地保护综合预警系统可以对区域耕地保护状况进行科学预警。 

Comprehensive Early Warning System of Cultivated Land Protection in Xinxiang City

In order to establish integrated early warning system of cultivated land protection based on cultivated land quantity，quality and productivity，the early warning of regional cultivated land comprehensive protection status was carried out.The negative number principle method was used to divide warning threshold.Various models were established to calculate the cultivated land quality and productivity changes caused by various reasons.Several results have been developed.Firstly，the change of cultivated land quantity has different influence on the quality and productivity of cultivated land.Secondly，affected by different causes of cultivated land quality change，the change of cultivated land quality and productivity was not proportional to each other.Cultivated land productivity could better reflect health status of regional cultivated land protection.Thirdly，the construction of cultivated land quality could improve quality and productivity of cultivated land when quantity cannot be balanced.Fourthly，the analyses of early warning results and causes of cultivated land could provide more targeted measures for regional cultivated land protection.In conclusion，the integrated early warning system of cultivated land protection could give scientific early warning on status of regional cultivated land protection.