湖北省油菜种植收益影响因素的实证分析

基于1978—2016年湖北省油菜种植成本收益数据,利用单位根检验、协整分析和贡献率分析方法,从敏感性与贡献率两个方面研究了湖北省油菜种植收益的影响因素。敏感性分析表明:单产是湖北省油菜种植收益最为敏感的影响因素,其后依次为人工成本、出售价格与农资成本;贡献率分析表明:单产对湖北省油菜种植收益变动的贡献率最大,其后依次为出售价格、人工成本与农资成本,并且在不同因素贡献率的联动作用下,2009—2016年期间湖北省油菜种植户面临着"双板挤压"困境,油菜种植的盈利空间较小。为保障湖北省农户油菜种植收益、提振油菜种植意愿,最后依次从单产、出售价格、人工成本、农资成本的视角提出了对策建议。

Empirical analysis on the influencing factors of rapeseed planting earning in Hubei Province

Based on the Cost-Benefit data of rapeseed planting in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2016,this study empirically analyzed the influencing factors on rapeseed planting income in Hubei Province from two aspects of sensitivity and contribution rate by unit root test,co-integration analysis and contribution rate analysis.The sensitivity analysis showed that yield was the most sensitive factor affecting the earning of rapeseed planting in Hubei Province,followed by labor cost,sale price and the cost of agricultural materials.The contribution rate analysis showed that the contribution rate of unit yield and the change of rapeseed planting income in Hubei Province was the largest,followed by the sale price,labor cost and the cost of agricultural materials.Under the linkage change of different factors,the rapeseed cultivation during 2009-2016 faced the dilemma of "double board extrusion",which led to less profitable space for rapeseed cultivation.In order to increase the income of farmers in Hubei Province and boost the willingness to grow rapeseed,this study put forward countermeasures and suggestions from the perspectives of yield,sale price,labor cost and the cost of agricultural materials in the end.