Socioeconomic factors influencing global paper and paperboard demand

To clarify the socioeconomic factors influencing global paper and paperboard demand, a panel data analysis was conducted covering the period 1961–2014. This study used paper and paperboard demand as the dependent variable, and a country’s economic level, Internet usage rate, plastic packaging demand, and time trend as the explanatory variables. An inverse U-shaped quadratic relationship, such as an environmental Kuznets curve, was found between economic level and paper and paperboard demand, which saturates and begins to decline as economic level increases. The economic level representing the turning point differs significantly with the use, ranging from around 37,000 US$/person for newsprint paper to around 66,000 US$/person for printing and writing paper. For both newsprint paper and printing and writing paper, demand declines owing to the spread of the Internet as the economic level rises, although this reductive effect is greater for printing and writing paper than for newsprint paper. A substitution relationship is not found between wrapping paper and corrugated cardboard on the one hand and plastic packaging on the other hand as the economic level becomes higher.