不同耕作措施下春小麦产量对温度变化的敏感性分析

为了研究温度变化对不同耕作条件下春小麦产量的影响,利用修正参数后的APSIM模型,自变量因子分别为最低温度、最高温度,在9种变化条件下对传统耕作+秸秆还田(TS)、免耕(NT)、免耕覆盖(NTS)3种耕作措施下的春小麦产量进行了模拟,并利用Surfer软件对产量变化率进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:在三种不同耕作措施下,春小麦产量变化率对最高温度的变化更为敏感,最高温度升高,产量变化率呈负敏感;在传统耕作+秸秆还田和免耕覆盖耕作措施下,春小麦平均产量分别是2 268.8 kg·hm-2和2 274.0 kg·hm-2,明显高于免耕耕作措施下的春小麦平均产量1 815.4 kg·hm-2;传统耕作+秸秆还田和免耕覆盖耕作措施下,小麦产量随温度变化相对稳定;当最低温度和最高温度在一定区域范围内变化时,传统耕作+秸秆还田和免耕覆盖产量表现更稳定。

Sensitivity analysis of spring wheat to variations in temperatures under different tillage measures

In order to study the influences of temperature variations under different tillage conditions on yield of spring wheat, a revised APSIM model was used. A simulation was implemented to analyze the yield of spring wheat by cultivation measures including conventional tillage & straw turnover (TS), no-till (NT), and no-tillage with mulch (NTS) under nine variable conditions using lowest and highest temperatures as the independent variable factors. Then the surfer software was used to complete the sensitivity analysis. The result shows that under three different cultivation measures, yield rate of the spring wheat was more sensitive to the variations of the highest temperature. When the highest temperature rose, yield rate showed a negative sensitivity. Under conventional tillage + straw returned and no-till cover tillage measures, the average yield of spring wheat are respectively 2 268.8 kg·hm^-2 and 2 274.0 kg·hm^-2, significantly higher than the average yield of spring wheat 1 815.4 kg·hm^-2 of no-till tillage measures. Under traditional farming + straw returned and no-till cover tillage measures, wheat production seemed stable with the changes of temperatures. When the lowest and highest temperatures varied within a certain range, wheat production under traditional farming + straw returned and no-till cover condition was stable.