台山县林业总体开发规划的决策分析

本文运用系统工程原理,借助环境辨识模型,对台山县的自然和社会环境进行了辨识,获得优势、制约和潜力环境因子;分析了该县林业发展的阶段性和林业资源特点;并进一步用系统诊断模型对该县森林生态经济系统进行诊断,把现实系统在时间、空间上层层展开,从而找出问题的根源、潜力、途径、优势和突破口;最后在前面研究的基础上,提出该县林业总体开发规划的总目标,并用层次分析模型进行总体开发规划的决策分析,提出总体开发规划的目标、规划区和措施。

DECISION ANALYSIS ON THE TOTAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING OF FORESTRY IN TAISHAN COUNTY

The systems engineering principles were used to identiy the natural and social envirinment in Taishan county with the help of the model of envirinment identification,and the dominant,restrictive and potential envirinment factors were got;the stages of forestry development and the characteristics of forest resources in Taishan county were analysed;furthermore,the forest economical ecosystem in this county was diagnosed by using the model of systems diagnosis,the problems,potentialities,ways,dominance and breaching point were got by opening up this actual system in time and space;finally,the guidelines for the total development planning of forestry in this county were put forward on the basis of the analysis of the above three parts,and the decision analysis on the total development planning of forestry in this county was studied by using the model of analytic hierarchy process,and the objectives,planning regions and measures of the total development planning of forestry were suggested.