贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长

在自由贸易区和"一带一路"战略的推动下,我国的对外贸易将迎来新的发展机遇。该研究从农业贸易开放对农业经济增长的影响这一问题出发,把技术进步纳入分析的视角,研究了农业贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长的关系。选取1999—2014年数据,并运用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系,考察了农业贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长三者之间的内在作用机理。结果表明:农业贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长之间存在2个协整关系,即长期稳定的均衡关系;农业贸易开放与农业经济增长存在双向格兰杰因果关系;而农业技术进步与农业经济增长仅存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,反向关系得不到实证证明。基于以上结论,该研究认为扩大贸易开放、积极实施农业供给侧结构性改革、加大农业科技投入力度、完善农村基础设施建设等是实现农业经济增长的重要选择。

Trade Openness,Technological Progress and Agricultural Economic Growth

Under the launch of free trade zones and the Belt and Road Initiative,China is facing new opportunities of development in foreign trade.The study begins with the influences of the opening-up of agricultural trade on economic growth in agriculture,studies the relationship between trade openingup, technological advances and economic growth in agriculture from the perspective of technological advances.The data from 1999to 2014were used,and the intrinsic mechanism among the three was examined by Co-integration and Granger causality test.The results showed that there were two integration relations among the three factors-long-term and stable equilibrium relations.There are reciprocal Granger causality relations between trade opening-up and economic growth in agriculture, while unilateral Granger causality relations exist between technological advances and economic growth in agriculture without any empirical evidence for the inverse relations.Based on above conclusions,the study suggested that to expand trade opening-up,actively reform supply-side structure in agriculture, increase investment in agricultural science and technology development,and improve rural infrastructure was an important measures for economic growth in agriculture.