| 水土保持工程的政府投资风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 温鹏,匡尚富,贾仰文. 水土保持工程的政府投资风险分析[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2009, 7(5): 32-36 |
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| 作者姓名： | 温鹏 匡尚富 贾仰文 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国水利水电科学研究院,100038,北京 |
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| 摘 要： | 以投资风险评估理论为基础,结合政府水土保持投资风险的特点,研究投资风险辨识体系,在全项目风险结构分解的基础上,提出基于蒙特卡洛风险模拟的政府水土保持投资风险分析方法,并以某水土保持工程为案例进行计算。结果与预期一致,表明用该投资风险分析方法可进行水土保持工程的政府投资风险分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 水土保持投资 蒙特卡洛方法 风险分解 风险评价 |
Risk analysis of governmental investment of soil and water conservation project |
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| Wen Peng,Kuang Shangfu,Jia Yangwen. Risk analysis of governmental investment of soil and water conservation project[J]. Science of Soil and Water Conservation, 2009, 7(5): 32-36 |
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| Authors: | Wen Peng Kuang Shangfu Jia Yangwen |
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| Affiliation: | China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,100038,Beijing,China |
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| Abstract: | Based on theory of investment risk assessment,identification systems of investment risk have been studied combined with characteristics of governmental soil and water conservation investment in this paper.On the basis of structure decomposition of investment risk in the whole project,analysis method of Monte Carlo simulation for soil and water conservation investment risk has been put forward.A soil and water conservation project has been taken for case study and relative datum have been calculated,in which the expected results have been obtained.It has been demonstrated that the method this paper raised is suitable for analyzing governmental soil and water conservation project investment risk. |
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| Keywords: | soil and water conservation investment Monte Carlo Simulation risk decomposition risk assessment |
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