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| 改进的灰色动态模型在五家渠市需水预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 文静,雷晓云,朱连勇,陈坤,余磊. 改进的灰色动态模型在五家渠市需水预测中的应用[J]. 节水灌溉, 2012, 0(2): 78-80,85 |
| 作者姓名： | 文静 雷晓云 朱连勇 陈坤 余磊 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,乌鲁木齐,830052 2. 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,乌鲁木齐830052／新疆塔里木大学水利与建筑工程学院,阿拉尔市843300 3. 新疆额河建管局,乌鲁木齐,830052 |
| 基金项目： | "十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目，新疆水利水电工程重点学科基金资助项目，新疆水文学及水资源重点学科基金资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 五家渠市地处乌鲁木齐河、老龙河等流域的下游,现面临着上游来水日趋减少、水质恶化与新增用水需求不断增长的多重挑战,因此,拟对五家渠市的需水进行预测研究,为合理配置五家渠市水资源,解决工农业用水矛盾提供重要依据。采用改进的灰色动态模型对五家渠市各用水部门不同规划水平年(2015、2020、2030年)的需水进行预测,结果表明,该模型克服了变量多的不利影响,便于实际应用,预测结果满足长期需水预测的精度要求。 |
| 关 键 词： | 五家渠市 水资源 灰色模型 需水预测 |
Application of Improved Grey Dynamic Model in Water Demand Forecast of Wujiaqu City |
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| WEN Jing,LEI Xiao-yun,ZHU Lian-yong,CHEN Kun,YU Lei. Application of Improved Grey Dynamic Model in Water Demand Forecast of Wujiaqu City[J]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2012, 0(2): 78-80,85 | |
| Authors: | WEN Jing LEI Xiao-yun ZHU Lian-yong CHEN Kun YU Lei |
| Affiliation: | 1.College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Xinjiang Agriculture University,Urumqi 830052,China; 2.College of Constructional and Hydraulic Engineering,Xinjiang Tarim University,Alar City 843300,China; 3.Xingjiang Eh River Construction Authority,Urumqi 830052,China) |
| Abstract: | Wujiaqu City is located in the basin downstream of Urumqi river,Lao longhe river,etc.Now it faces with the multiple challenges of declining upstream runoff,water quality deterioration and the growing demand for new water.Therefore,this paper intends to predict the water demand of Wujiaqu City to provide an important basis for the rational allocation of water resources and to resolve the conflicts between industrial and agricultural water.The improved Grey Dynamic Model is used to forecast water demand of Wujiaqu City in the year of 2015,2020,2030.The result shows that the model overcomes the adverse effects of many variables to facilitate the practical application,and the forecast result satisfies the accuracy requirements of the long-term water demand forecasts. |
| Keywords: | Wujiaqu City water resources gray model water demand forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |