Simulation of juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) migrations in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

Previous research has documented two main migratory routes of juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) through the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada, and large interannual variability in marine survival rates of the Chilko Lake stock. Simulation models were used to explore the influence of surface currents on the migratory route of juvenile sockeye salmon (smolts) through the Strait of Georgia. We used a model of downstream migration to generate daily numbers of Chilko Lake sockeye salmon smolts entering the Strait of Georgia, based on daily counts of smolts leaving the rearing lake. A numerical hydrodynamic model (driven by surface wind, tide, and Fraser River discharge) hindcasted surface currents in the Strait of Georgia on a 2 km × 2 km grid. A smolt migration model simulated fish moving through the Strait with different compass-oriented migratory behaviours (i.e. swimming speed and directional orientation) within the time-varying surface advection field. Results showed that surface currents within the Strait of Georgia can affect the migratory route of sockeye salmon smolts in spite of their large size (8 cm). Wind is the forcing mechanism primarily responsible for determining which migratory route would be used. Under prevailing wind conditions (i.e. toward the north-west), most sockeye salmon smolts would use the eastern migratory route; however, relatively brief south-eastward wind events (lasting about 2 days) would force most smolts into the western migratory route. Given the heterogeneity of food for salmon within the Strait, we hypothesize that wind-driven variability in the annual proportion of smolts that use the western and eastern migratory routes in the Strait of Georgia affects early marine survival rates of Fraser River sockeye salmon.