| 基于信息扩散理论的邢台市农业旱灾风险分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张瑞清,李敏,陈佳飞,商慧莲,商彦蕊.基于信息扩散理论的邢台市农业旱灾风险分析[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(6):212-215. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张瑞清 李敏 陈佳飞 商慧莲 商彦蕊 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 河北师范大学, 资源与环境科学学院, 河北省环境演变与生态建设重点实验室, 石家庄 050016 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金“区域农业旱灾适应性评价模型与风险防范模式研究”(41171402); 河北省高校重点学科建设项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 以邢台市2000-2007年的统计数据为基础，应用基于信息扩散理论的模糊数学方法，建立邢台市农业旱灾风险评价模型，对邢台旱灾风险进行分析。结果表明:邢台旱灾受灾概率在受灾指数为10%时达到峰值，在受灾指数超过30%之后几乎为零；成灾风险值显示邢台市在应对旱灾方面已取得显著成效，但该市平均每1.7 a遭受到一次受灾面积超过10%的旱灾，农业旱灾仍不容忽视。研究结果增加了对邢台市旱情的清楚认识，对区域防灾减灾的可持续发展具有指导意义。
|
| 关 键 词： | 信息扩散 农业旱灾 风险分析 邢台 |
Risk Assessment of Agriculture Drought Disaster in Xingtai City Based on Information Diffusion Technique |
| |
| ZHANG Rui-qing,LI Min,CHEN Jia-fei,SHANG Hui-lian,SHANG Yan-rui.Risk Assessment of Agriculture Drought Disaster in Xingtai City Based on Information Diffusion Technique[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(6):212-215. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Rui-qing LI Min CHEN Jia-fei SHANG Hui-lian SHANG Yan-rui |
| |
| Institution: | School of Geograph, Hebei Normal University, Hebei Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Ecological Construction, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050016, China |
| |
| Abstract: | By using the statistical data of Xingtai City in 2000-2007 and the fuzzy mathematical method based on information diffusion principle,risk models of agricultural drought disaster of Xingtai City was established,the drought disaster risk of this city was analyzed.The results show that the damage probability of drought disaster in Xingtai City reaches maximum when the index is 10% and it is almost zero after the index is over 30%;the value of disaster risk shows that Xingtai City has made remarkable achieveme... |
| |
| Keywords: | information diffusion agriculture drought disaster risk analysis Xingtai City |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《水土保持研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《水土保持研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
