东营市寒潮低温灾害风险区划方法探析

利用近32年东营市辖区内大监站气象资料和区域自动站气象资料、各乡镇人口和经济资料、地理信息及灾情普查资料,对东营市低温气候特征和发生灾害情况进行统计分析,采用频率统计、层次分析、专家打分、加权综合评价方法和GIS技术,计算出各地低温灾害的风险系数,进而对该灾害进行风险区划.结果表明,自1981年以来,东营市共出现寒潮低温138次,其中秋末出现次数最多,其次为冬初,冬末和春初出现寒潮低温的概率相对较小；从东营市寒潮低温灾害风险区划图来看,全市自南向北及自西向东遭受寒潮低温灾害的风险呈依次减小态势.由于南部和西部区域为大面积农田区并有设施农业分布,受寒潮低温影响较大,受灾风险较高；而北部和东部区域为盐业生产或沿海港口,对寒潮低温造成的影响有一定的抵御能力,受灾风险相对较低.

Discussion on Risk Regionalization Method of Hypothermia Disaster in Dongying City

Based on 32 years of Dongying municipal districts large mete orological data monitoring stations and regional stations automatic meteorologi cal data, the township population and e conomic information, geographic infor mation and disaster census information on the characteristics and Dongying hy pothermia disasters were statistically ana lyzed. Using frequency statistics, the lev el of analysis, expert scoring, weighted comprehensive evaluation method and GIS technology to calculate the risk of disasters around the low temperature co efficient, and the risk of the hazard zon ing was analyzed. The results showed that, since 1981, a total of 138 times cold temperature occurred in Dongying City, most frequently in late fall, followed by early winter. Hypothermia disaster prob ability appeared relatively small in late winter and early spring. From the hy pothermia disaster risk zoning map view of Dongying City, the risk of suffering from cold temperature of the city from south to north and from west to east was reduced in turn. The southern and west em regions were influenced by the cold temperature disaster risk higher due to large areas of agricultural land area and distribution of facilities agriculture, while the northern and eastern regions of salt production or coastal ports had a certain resilience to the impact on the cold tem perature, and the disaster risk was rela tively low.