2010年7月抚顺大暴雨过程分析

利用常规气象资料对2010年7月19～23日抚顺地区出现暴雨成因进行分析。分析结果表明造成该次暴雨天气过程天气系统为高空槽和副热带高压,低层有低空急流,切变线。该次降水物理量场有较好的对应,正涡度场,低层辐合、高层辐散为暴雨产生提供动力条件,高温高湿为暴雨提供热力条件,大水汽通量区为暴雨提供水汽条件。该次暴雨是由发生在高空槽前切变线上中尺度对流云团造成。地形作用对降水有增幅作用。数值预报检验中尺度预报降水量级误差较大,可信度不如日本数值预报。

Analysis of Heavy Rainfall on July,2010 in Fushun

Using conventional meteorological data from July 19 to 23, 2010 causes heavy rains in Fushun areas for analysis. Analysis showed that the heavy rainfall caused by the weather system trough and subtropical high, low with low-level jet, shear line. The good rainfall corresponding physical field. Vorticity field, low level convergence, upper level divergence conditions for the storm to power generation. High temperature and humidity conditions for the storm to provide heat, water vapor flux in a large area to provide moisture for the storm conditions. The heavy rain occurred in the upper trough by the shear line before the mesoscale convective cloud cluster caused. Topography effects on the precipitation increase. Mesoscale numerical prediction of precipitation forecast verification error level greater than the credibility of numerical prediction in Japan.