新疆地区近15年来土地利用时空变化及驱动力分析

以20世纪80年代末新疆土地利用数据库及2000年、2005年两期新疆遥感影像为信息源,结合土地利用变化数量和空间分析模型及马尔科夫过程,分析新疆近15年来的土地利用变化强度及各地类间的转移变化状况,揭示该区域土地利用的时空变化特征和规律.最后采用马尔科夫过程预测各土地利用类型的变化趋势,并对土地变化的驱动力进行分析.结果显示:耕地面积处于上升状态,其年变化幅度最大;林地面积总体呈减少趋势且减少部分主要被开发为耕地;草地面积总体呈下降趋势.水域面积不断增加.工矿居民建设用地增加迅猛.由马尔科夫过程预测结果显示自2000年以后,草地、林地面积逐年增加,耕地面积呈下降趋势.人口增长,农业科技进步和农业结构调整,政策因素,社会经济发展等是驱动新疆土地利用变化的主要因素.

LUCC analysis of Xinjiang based on GIS and Markov Process

Based on the late 1980s land use database and images in 2000~2005 of Xinjiang, the paper used mod-els and Markov Process to analyze the LUCC of Xinjiang in the past 15 years. The results are as follows: The area offarnland was increasing, and the increased scale was the biggest of all the land use types . Grassland was downward. Waters area was increasing, and the increased rate was going up. The forecast results of Markov Process show that since 2000, grassland and forest was increasing every year, but the farmland was decreasing. The dynamic changes of land use of Xinjiang were mainly caused by the policy change, economic development , population growth, advancement in agricul-tural technology and so on.