河北省夏蝗大发生的气象预报

分析影响夏蝗大发生的关键气象因子,预报夏蝗的发生程度,对夏蝗防治决策起着十分重要的作用.利用秩相关系数法,筛选出影响河北省洼淀和沿海两个类型区夏蝗大发生的关键气象因子.根据贝叶斯判别准则,确定了两类蝗区夏蝗大发生关键气象因子的最佳临界距平值;利用灾变规律的关键时预报方法,对两个蝗区因子数确定的关键年进行敏感性分析,确定了两个类型蝗区最佳的预报因子数.在此基础上,对河北省不同生态类型区夏蝗大发生进行模拟和预报,结果拟合率达到99%以上,2004和2005年延伸预报结果与实际一致.

Meteorological Forecast on Summer Locust Outbreaks in Hebei Province

The outbreak forecast of the summer locust plays an important role in the decision making of the summer locust prevention and control, The key meteorological factors affecting summer locust outbreak were selected by using Spearman Order Correlation methods. According to Bayesian rule, the best critical departure from normal value of the key meteorological factors for the outbreak of summer locust was determined by two kinds of ecological area. Using the disaster key time prediction method, the sensitivity of key years affected by meteorological factors was analyzed and the best factors of forecasting for summer locust outbreak in two kinds of ecological area were determined. Based on these, the modeling and the forecasting of summer locust outbreak were carried out for two different ecological regions in Hebei Province. The result was satisfied with the accuracy of modeling over 99%. The forecast was consistent with the real conditions in 2004 and 2005 respectively.