| 气候变化下我国小麦产量变化区域模拟研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊 伟,居 辉,许吟隆,林而达.气候变化下我国小麦产量变化区域模拟研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2006,14(2):164-167. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊 伟 居 辉 许吟隆 林而达 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院农业环境和可持续发展研究所,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用最新温室气体和SO2排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式和区域作物模型模拟未来2080s(2071~2100)我国小麦产量变化结果表明,2种温室气体排放方案2080s我国雨养小麦均表现显著减产趋势,灌溉可缓解小麦减产趋势,但不能阻止产量下降;若考虑CO2的直接肥效作用,雨养和灌溉小麦均表现明显增产趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 小麦 模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-12-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-01-29 |
Regional simulation of wheat yield in China under the climatic change conditions |
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| XIONG Wei,JU Hui,XU Yin-Long and LIN Er-Da.Regional simulation of wheat yield in China under the climatic change conditions[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2006,14(2):164-167. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Wei JU Hui XU Yin-Long and LIN Er-Da |
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| Institution: | Institute of Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In this research,we applied the(newest) emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases,i.e.(Intergovernmental) Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios((SRES)) A2 and B2 scenarios,combined with the RCM ((Regional) Climate Model) model and(CERES)-Wheat model to (investigate) the change of wheat(yield) in 2080s.The results show(that) under the two emission scenarios,in 2080s,the yield of rainfed wheat decreases(dramatically;) irrigation can offset the decrease,but can not stop it;the yield increases for both irrigated wheat and rainfed wheat if the direct effect of CO_2 is considered in the simulation. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Wheat Simulation |
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