喀什地区杏树开花始期与气象因子的相关性及预报方法研究

利用新疆喀什地区喀什市、叶城县、莎车县、巴楚县、麦盖提县1984—2019年杏树物候期观测资料,与同期逐日平均气温、最低气温、降水量以及日照时数资料,采用相关分析和回归分析,对杏树开花始期与气象因子的关系进行分析,拟为开花期预报提供依据。结果表明：各气象因子中,最低气温对开花影响最大,其次为平均气温和日照,降水及其他气象因子影响较小。研究区气温与杏树开花期正相关,1984—2019年间,喀什地区2月下旬至3月下旬最低气温、平均气温增加幅度为0.2~1.7℃/10 a,杏花芽膨大期、花芽开放期、开花始期分别提前5.3~8.7、3.1~5.6、2.2~3.6 d/10 a。杏树开花期预报服务中,喀什地区偏北、偏南、偏东区域逐日平均气温分别稳定通过≥0℃的初日~第34天、第39~41天、第37~39天,或开花始期前稳定通过≥0℃的积温分别达到250、270~280、250~270℃,或杏树开花始期前5日滑动平均气温均稳定通过≥12℃拟作为杏树进入开花始期的依据。

Apricot Initial Flowering Period and Meteorological Factors of Kashi,Xinjiang: Correlation and Predication

Based on the observation of the apricot tree phenology and the daily average temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours of the corresponding period in Kashi City, and Yecheng, Shache, Bachu and Maigaiti County of Kashi Prefecture of Xinjiang, the relationship between the beginning of apricot flowering and meteorological factors was analyzed using correlation analysis and regression analysis. The results show that among the various meteorological factors, the lowest temperature has the greatest impact on flowering, followed by the average temperature and sunlight, and the precipitation and other meteorological factors have less influence. The temperature in the study area is positively correlated to the flowering period of the apricot tree. From 1984 to 2019, the minimum temperature and average temperature increase in Kashi from late February to late March was 0.2-1.7℃/10 years. The apricot flower bud expansion period, flower bud opening period, the beginning of flowering was ahead of time by 5.3 to 8.7, 3.1 to 5.6, and 2.2 to 3.6 d/10 a, respectively. In apricot flowering period forecasting service, the daily average temperature of north, south and east of Kashi passed through ≥0℃ from day 1 to 34, day 39 to 41, day 37 to 39, or the accumulated temperature passed ≥0℃ before flowering reaching 250, 270-280, and 250-270℃, respectively, or the sliding average temperature of 5 days before the beginning of flowering passed≥12℃ could be used as the basis for predicting the beginning of apricot tree flowering.