不同轮作施肥模式的菜田产量动态灰色模型和稳定性研究

为克服蔬菜连作障碍,提出高产稳产的优化轮作施肥措施,本研究针对稻田改制为一年三熟制的菜田,采用4种不同轮作施肥模式连续进行7年定位试验,根据每年各季供试作物的实收产量,分别探讨产量可持续性指数和长期趋势产量水平,探讨不同轮作施肥模式对菜田作物产量稳定性影响的定量评价方法。结果表明,菜-菜-稻轮作结合氮磷钾推荐施肥模式的四季豆和芥菜平均产量显著高于菜-菜-菜轮作结合氮磷钾习惯施肥或推荐施肥2个种植模式,但与菜-菜-稻轮作结合氮磷钾习惯施肥模式的平均产量差异未达显著水平。菜-菜-稻轮作比菜-菜-菜轮作平均增产13.6%,推荐施肥比习惯施肥平均增产6.2%,前者均显著高于后者。菜-菜-稻轮作结合氮磷钾推荐施肥模式中四季豆、芥菜和早稻的产量可持续性指数分别为0.794、0.572和0.851,显著高于其他3种轮作施肥模式;水旱轮作和推荐施肥这两个生产措施均有利于提高菜田作物产量可持续性指数。TPGM(1,1)灰色预测模型对7年定位试验产量结果具有最佳拟合效果,12个预测模型的平均拟合误差为8.8%,基本满足了产量预测精度需求。该模型显示菜-菜-稻轮作结合氮磷钾推荐施肥的一年三熟制趋势产量最高。因此,通过产量均值、产量可持续性指数和趋势产量等指标的综合评价,菜-菜-稻轮作结合氮磷钾推荐施肥模式具有高产稳产特性,是当地最佳的菜田轮作施肥模式。

Yield Dynamic Gray Model and Its Stability Under Different Rotations and Fertilization Systems on Vegetable Fields

To overcome the obstacle of continuously cropping vegetables, and proposes optimized rotation and fertilization measures with high and stable yields, the study focused on the change from continuous paddy fields to vegetable fields with three cropping rotations in a year, and four different fertilization and crop rotation patterns were used to carry out the location test for 7 continuous years. On the basis of actual yield of each season of each year, the index of sustainability and the long-term trend of years were discussed, and the method for quantitatively evaluating crop-yield stability under different fertilization and rotation patterns and proposes optimized rotation and fertilization measures with high and stable yields were also explored. The results indicated the vegetable-vegetable-rice rotation combined with the recommended fertilization showed that the average yields of kidney beans and leaf mustard were significantly higher than the vegetable-vegetable-vegetable rotation combined with conventional fertilization or with the recommended fertilization, and compared with the yield vegetable-vegetable-rice rotation combined with conventional fertilization, that of the vegetable-vegetable-vegetable rotation was nonsignificant. The average yield of the vegetable-vegetable-rice rotation increased by 13.6% compared with that of the vegetable-vegetable-vegetable rotation, and the average yield with the recommended fertilization increased by 6.2% compared with that with conventional fertilization; in addition, the former was significantly higher than the latter. For the vegetable-vegetable-rice rotation combined with the recommended fertilization, the index of sustainable yield of kidney beans, leaf mustard and rice were 0.794, 0.572 and 0.851, respectively, which were significantly higher than those the other three patterns. The two production measures of the rice field and upland field rotation and recommended fertilization were beneficial to the improvement in the crop sustainability yield index in the vegetable field. The TPGM (1,1) gray prediction model that provided yield results for the seven-year positioning experiment had the best-fitting effect, and the average fitting error of 12 prediction models was 8.8%, essentially meeting the accuracy requirements of yield prediction. The TPGM (1,1) model showed that the vegetable-vegetable-rice rotation combined with the recommended fertilization ranked first in trend yield for the annual triple-cropping system. Therefore, from the indicators of yield average value, sustainable yield index and trend yield sort to synthetic evaluation, the vegetable-vegetable-rice rotation combined with the recommended fertilization resulted in high yields and stability, which was the best tillage pattern for vegetable fields in the location of the study.