东北严寒地区农村生活用能基线调研与零碳发展路径研究

为了探究碳中和目标愿景对中国农村能源供给体系发展带来的深远影响,本研究通过对中国东北严寒农村地区调研,总结分析了农村生活用能消费特点。结果表明：受气候条件影响,东北地区农村人均年生活用能消费达(0.99±0.40) tce,冬季采暖用能占比达(79.4±4.9)%,主要以秸秆、薪柴及煤炭资源消耗为主,建筑围护结构保温性差,低效传统炉灶仍普遍存在。针对农村地区气候特征、资源禀赋、居住方式与能源需求趋势,基于生物质及太阳能等资源利用,采用多能互补、多元化供应模式,提出了在碳中和目标愿景下,“分户式秸秆成型燃料取暖+建筑节能+分布式太阳能光伏”,以及“秸秆打捆直燃集中供暖+分布式太阳能光伏+建筑节能+分户式省柴节能炉灶”的技术应用模式,并对4个示范村节能减排能力的提升进行估算分析,预计年生活用能节能占比可达(39.7±5.1)%,碳减排量可分别提高5.7倍、66.6倍、24.1倍和15.6倍。

Technology Path of Carbon Neutrality Based on the Survey of Rural Life Energy Usage Baseline in Severe Cold Region of Northeast China

To explore the far-reaching impact of the carbon-neutral goal vision on the development of China’s rural energy supply, this study summarized and analyzed the characteristics of rural domestic energy consumption through a survey of severe cold rural areas in northeast China. The results show that: affected by climatic conditions, the per capita annual rural energy consumption in northeast China is (0.99±0.40) tce, and the heating energy consumption accounts for (79.4±4.9)%, firewood, straw and coal are main fuels, the buildings are poorly insulated, and the traditional stoves with low efficiency are widely used. According to the climate characteristics, resource endowment, living style and energy demand trend in rural areas, and considering the utilization of biomass and solar resources, we adopted multiple complementary and diversified supply mode, proposed the pathways of ‘household straw briquette heating+ building energy saving + distributed solar photovoltaic’ and ‘straw bundling direct-burning central heating+ distributed solar photovoltaic+ building energy saving+ household clean firewood stoves with high efficiency’ based on the carbon neutral target vision, and estimated and analyzed the improvement of energy saving and emission reduction ability of the four demonstration villages. It is estimated that (39.7±5.1)% of the total energy consumption could be saved annually. The carbon reduction efficiency of the four villages could be increased by 5.7 times, 66.6 times, 24.1 times and 15.6 times, respectively