1999—2018年四川省耕地时空格局演化特征

本研究以1999—2018年四川省181个县市（区）的耕地面积为研究对象,基于主成分分析法与空间分析法,描述了其耕地面积的时空格局演变特征,探索了其时空变化的主要驱动因子。结果表明：1999—2018年间,四川省总耕地面积经历了连续减少、缓慢增加、波动变化、迅速增加和稳定变化5个阶段。整个变化过程中,全省耕地空间上的变化主要发生在川西北高原区与成都平原区。其中,川西南山区与川西北高原区耕地面积表现为增加状态,川中丘陵区、成都平原区与盆地周边山区耕地面积表现为减少状态,重心南移现象明显。影响四川省耕地面积变化的主要驱动力包括农业发展基础、经济发展水平和地理区位3个因素。其中,农业发展基础牢固是川西北高原耕地增加的主要原因,区域经济发展水平和区位特征正向驱动盆地周边山区耕地的变化,区域经济发展水平负向驱动川中丘陵区耕地的变化,而成都平原区与川西南山区耕地变化是经济发展水平的负效应与农业发展基础和区位优势的正效应相互作用的结果。上述结论将为四川省制定合理的土地利用利用与耕地资源保护政策提供科学依据。

Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution of Cultivated Land in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2018

This study took the cultivated land area of 181 counties in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2018 as the research object, based on principal component analysis and spatial analysis, described the spatial-temporal pattern evolution characteristics of cultivated land area in the province and explored the main driving factors. The results showed that from 1999 to 2018, the total cultivated land area in Sichuan had five stages: continuous decrease, slow increase, fluctuating change, rapid increase and stable change. In the whole process of change, the spatial change of cultivated land in the province mainly occurred in northwest Sichuan plateau and Chengdu plain. Among them, the cultivated land area of southwest Sichuan mountainous area and northwest Sichuan plateau increased, while the cultivated land area of central Sichuan hilly area, Chengdu plain area and mountainous area around basin decreased. The gravity center of cultivated land area moved southward obviously. The main driving forces of cultivated land change in Sichuan included agricultural development foundation, economic development level and geographical location. Among them, solid foundation of agricultural development was the main reason for the increase of cultivated land in northwest Sichuan plateau. The level of regional economic development and location characteristics were positively driving the change of cultivated land in the mountainous areas around the basin. The level of regional economic development is the negative driving force of the change of cultivated land in hilly area of central Sichuan. The interaction of the negative effect of economic development level and the positive effect of agricultural development foundation and location advantage resulted in the cultivated land change in Chengdu plain and southwest Sichuan mountainous area. The above conclusions could provide a scientific basis for making reasonable policies on land use and cultivated land protection in Sichuan Province.