贫困山区粮食单产变化贡献因素分解与测算——以云南为例

明确粮食单产变化的贡献因素,为保障贫困山区粮食安全提供应对策略。以云南为例,根据1989—2018年的粮食生产数据,利用RLI模型,构建粮食单产变化的因素分解模型,从作物和区域2个角度对云南粮食单产变化的贡献因素进行分解测算。结果显示,云南粮食单产呈明显上升趋势,且单产变化的稳定性有所增强。云南粮食增产的首要贡献因素是粮食作物单产水平的提升,平均贡献率达82.21%,但结构效应的作用也不容小觑。从作物角度看,玉米和薯类的综合效应最大,贡献率达134.89%。从区域角度看,保山市、昭通市、西双版纳州、文山州、临沧市和德宏州发挥主导作用。贫困山区省份的各级政府在巩固脱贫攻坚成果时,要妥善处理产业扶贫经济作物与粮食作物的关系,优化贫困山区粮食生产优势区域的产业结构,加大贫困山区粮食新品种和新技术的研发投入,加快完善贫困山区粮食技术推广体系,增强贫困山区粮食储备与应急机制。

Decomposition and Calculation of Contribution Factors of Grain Yield Change in Poverty-stricken Mountainous Areas: Taking Yunnan as an Example

The contribution factors of the change of grain yield per unit area are clarified to provide coping strategies for food security in poor mountainous areas. Taking Yunnan Province as an example, based on the grain production data from 1989 to 2018, using the RLI model, this paper constructs a factor decomposition model for the change of grain yield per unit area, and calculates the contribution factors of grain yield change in Yunnan Province from the perspectives of crops and regions. The results show that: the grain yield per unit area in Yunnan presents an obvious upward trend, and the stability of the change is enhanced. The primary contribution factor of grain yield increase in Yunnan is the improvement of grain yield per unit area, with an average contribution rate of 82.21%, but the role of structural effect should not be underestimated. From the perspective of crops, corn and potato have the greatest combined effect, with the contribution rate of 134.89%. From the regional perspective, Baoshan, Zhaotong, Xishuangbanna, Wenshan, Lincang and Dehong play a leading role. When consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation, governments at all levels in poverty-stricken mountainous areas should properly handle the relationship between industrial poverty alleviation cash crops and food crops, optimize the industrial structure of advantageous areas for grain production, increase research and development investment in new varieties and technologies of grain, accelerate the improvement of grain technology extension system, and strengthen the grain reserve and emergency mechanism in poor mountainous areas.