柴达木地区枸杞产量与气象条件关系模型构建

在柴杞主产区内选取格尔木市台、诺木洪站2个站点的枸杞发育期及相对应的气温、降水及日照等观测资料,应用逐步回归、概率统计等方法对柴达木地区不同发育时段气象因子对产量的影响进行统计分析,结果表明:(1)枸杞产量与老眼枝开花期间日平均气温,春梢生长期间日最高气温及积温,老眼枝果实成熟期间日最低气温,夏果形成及成熟期间气温日较...

Model Construction of the Relationship Between the Yield of Lycium barbarum and Meteorological Condition in Qaidam Area

In Qaidam Lycium barbarum producing area, the developmental phase, precipitation and sunshine in stations of Golmud and Nuomuhong were selected, and the effect of meteorological factors in different developmental phases on yield was studied by stepwise regression and probability statistics. The results showed that: (1) Lycium barbarum yield was positively correlated with daily average temperature in flowering stage of Laoyan branch, the highest temperature and accumulated temperature in spring branch growth stage, the lowest temperature in fructescence of Laoyan branch, temperature daily range in summer fruit formation and maturity stage and total sunshine hours of spring branch growth and autumn branch flowering stage; (2) the yield of Lycium barbarum was negatively correlated with the precipitation in the flowering stage of Laoyan branch, fruit formation stage of Laoyan branch, growth stage of spring branch, summer fruit maturity stage, autumn branch flowering stage and autumn fruit maturity stage; (3) the results of regression analysis between key meteorological factors and Lycium barbarum yield showed that the multiple correlation coefficient of the equation was 0.9705, according to built model, the results of previous yield and practical yield in 2019 had little absolute error and relative error, and high forecast accuracy, fully indicating that the selected 5 meteorological elements could accurately forecast the production of Lycium barbarum, which could be applied in practical forecast.