油用牡丹花期预报

根据菏泽市2008—2019年油用牡丹花期观测资料及相应气象要素,利用滑动平均、相关分析及逐步回归等数理统计方法,分析了影响菏泽市油用牡丹始花期早晚的主要气象因子。结果表明：温度条件是影响油用牡丹始花期主要的气象因子之一,并与花期呈显著负相关;日照、降水及日较差等气象条件与油用牡丹始花期相关均不显著。选取2008—2018年对牡丹花期影响较大的气象因子,采用逐步回归方法,建立了油用牡丹始花期预报模型,可分别于3月21日、4月1日发布花期预报。模型历史回代（允许误差均在±1天）,并对2019、2020年进行试报,准确率均为100%,拟合程度较为理想,试报效果较好,满足气象服务需求。

Oil Peony Flowering Season Forecast

According to the observation data of flowering period of oil peony in Heze City from 2008 to 2019 and the corresponding meteorological elements, the main meteorological factors affecting the flowering period of oil peony in Heze City were analyzed by using the mathematical statistical methods of moving average, correlation analysis and stepwise regression. The results showed that temperature was one of the main meteorological factors affecting the first flowering period of oil peony, and had a significant negative correlation with the flowering period; sunshine, precipitation and daily range had no significant correlation with the first flowering period of oil peony. Based on the meteorological factors that had great influence on the flowering period of peony from 2008 to 2018, a forecasting model for the first flowering period of oil peony was established by using the stepwise regression method, which could release the flowering forecast on March 21 and April 1 respectively. The accuracy of the model was 100% in 2019 and 2020, and the fitting degree was ideal. The model has a good forecasting effect and could meet the needs of meteorological services.