基于模糊聚类分析的天津市生态环境承载力评价

为定量研究天津市生态环境承载力状况,有效利用自然资源、促进可持续发展,基于其生态环境现状以及社会经济发展特点,依据P-S-R模型构建生态环境承载力评价指标体系和分级标准,按照主客观相结合的赋权方法,通过模糊聚类分析对天津市2000—2014年的生态环境承载力水平及变化趋势进行深入研究。结果表明:天津市生态环境承载力隶属度值呈上升趋势,承载力等级从超载状态上升到可承载状态。其中,压力层、响应层生态环境承载力等级稳步上升,分别在2009和2010年达到可承载状态;状态层生态环境承载力等级呈波浪式变动,虽发展趋势不容乐观,但也有所好转,这说明在社会经济发展过程中,资源消耗过度、环境污染和生态破坏等问题是制约生态环境承载力进一步提高的主要因素。

Evaluation of ecological environment carrying capacity in Tianjin based on fuzzy cluster analysis

To quantitatively study the carrying capacity of ecological environment in Tianjin, make effective use of natural resources and promote sustainable development, based on the current situation of ecological environment and the characteristics of social and economic development, a evaluation index system and grading standards of ecological environment carrying capacity according to P-S-R model is constructed in this study. A combination of subjective and objective weighting method and fuzzy cluster analysis are adopted to investigate the ecological environment carrying capacity in Tianjin level from 2000 to 2014 years and provide scientific basis for the construction of ecological environment in Tianjin. The results show that:The membership value of ecological environment carrying capacity in Tianjin is on the rise, and the carrying capacity level rises from the overloaded state to the bearing state; The pressure and response level of ecological environment carrying capacity increased steadily, and reached the bearing state in 2009 and 2010 respectively; The level of ecological environment carrying capacity of the state layer is fluctuating. The development trend is not optimistic. The problems of over-consumption of resources, environmental pollution and ecological destruction are the main factors that restrict the further carrying capacity of ecological environment. The research results provide reasonable suggestions for the future development of Tianjin and references for the research on the carrying capacity of ecological environment in other regions.