基于层次分析-模糊综合评价法的水利枢纽灌区工程防汛风险评估

基于我国水利枢纽灌区工程防汛度汛现状，将此类工程防汛风险划分为4个一级指标，12个二级指标，运用层次分析法（AHP）赋予各风险指标权重，进而采用模糊综合评价法确定各风险指标在风险概率、风险损失量、风险预测性和风险进一步恶化可能性4个层次评价标准下的风险指数，并结合各风险指数的权重对防汛风险进行综合的定量与定性评估。选取某灌区二期工程为例，证明该理论可用来降低灌区工程的防汛风险，规避损失，为我国形成完备的水利枢纽灌区工程防汛风险评估体系提供理论指导依据。 

Flood Risk Assessment of Irrigation District of Water Conservancy Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Based on current situation of flood control and flood season in China′s water conservancy hub project，the flood risk of such projects was divided into four first-level indicators and twelve second-level indicators.AHP was used to assign weight to each risk indicator，and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to determine the risk index of each risk index under the four levels of risk probability，risk loss，risk predictability and probability of further deterioration of risk，and made a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of flood risk in combination with the weight of each risk index.A second phase project of an irrigation district was taken as an example，it was proved that the theory could be used to reduce the risk of flood control in irrigation projects and avoid losses，and provide theoretical guidance for the formation of a complete risk assessment system of flood control in the irrigation district of China.