我国小麦生产的要素替代关系研究

为识别劳动力价格快速上涨背景下我国农业生产要素替代关系及其程度的演变特征,本研究基于超越对数生产函数模型,采用15个小麦主产区1981—2016年的面板数据在全国和区域2个层面估算主要生产要素的产出弹性和替代弹性。结果表明:1)农业机械和化肥投入可以有效替代劳动力并提高小麦产量;2)相比化肥,机械对劳动力的替代效应更加显著且持久;3)平原地区机械对劳动力的替代效应以及小麦产出的促进效应始终强于非平原地区。鉴于此,一方面要打破推进机械化的制度约束,激励农户加快投入结构的调整,另一方面要因地制宜引导机械技术的研发和创新,促进区域机械化平衡发展。

Research on the factor substitution relationships of wheat production

To identify the substitution relationships between different agricultural factors and their degree against the background of rapidly rising labor price, a translog production model was applied to evaluate of the output and substitution elasticity of the main factors based on the panel data of 15 major wheat producing provinces from 1981-2016.The results showed that:Firstly, agricultural machinery and fertilizer could effectively substitute labor and increase the wheat yield.Secondly, machinery was a better substitute for labor than fertilizer.Finally, the substitution degree of machinery for labor and its promoting in the plain area was consistently higher than the non-plain area.In conclusion, the institutional restriction should be broken for fast boosting mechanization and make advance on the research and innovation of machinery technology according to circumstances.