1951～2007年东北地区有效积温时空变化特征

利用1951~2007年东北3省86个站点最高气温和最低气温数据,通过arcgis和SPSS软件分析了东北地区近57年来〉10℃的有效积温的时空变化。结果表明,东北3省有效积温在时间上呈显著递增趋势,其中吉林（P=0.024）、黑龙江（P=0.003）和辽宁（P〈0.001）递增趋势依次增强;阐明了东北区域农业气候资源的发展变化,探讨气候变化下,东北区域农业发展存在的问题,增温导致有效积温增加,同时有可能加剧区域性干旱,加快作物的生长和成熟,从而导致作物产量减少和品质下降。

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Effective Accumulated Temperature in Northeast China during 1951-2007

Using the data of the minimum and maximum air temperature in Northeast China during 1951-2007,the temporal and spatial variation of effective accumulated temperature >10 ℃ was analyzed with Arcgis and SPSS software.The results indicated that effective accumulated temperature in three provinces of Northeast China tended to significantly increase with time,and the increasing tendency enhanced in the order of Jilin Province(P=0.024),Heilongjiang Province(P=0.003),Liaoning Province(P<0.001).The development and change of agriculture climate resources in the Northeast of China were indicated.The problems of agriculture development under climate change were discussed.Warming can lead to the increase of effective accumulated temperature and regional drought,consequently accelerate the growth and maturity of crops and lead to the decline of crop yield and quality.