农业供给侧改革背景下的乌鲁木齐市果蔬消费需求

为适应人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分发展之间的矛盾变化,农业发展由总量扩张转向质量提升。通过从宏观层面统计分析消费者主要食品边际消费倾向,采用一次指数平滑法对果蔬消费量预测;从微观层面依据对乌鲁木齐市476户城镇家庭调研的数据,利用有序多分类logistic模型分析消费需求的影响因素。从消费者角度发现果蔬供给过程中现存的问题,并对此提出建议,从而为地方政府制定蔬菜供应保障策略与规划提供科学依据,并为农产品消费方面的研究提供参考。

Consumption Demand of Fruits and Vegetables in Urumqi under Background of Agricultural Supply-side Reform

In order to adapt to contradiction between people's growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development，agricultural development has changed from total expansion to quality improvement.Based on statistical analysis of consumers' marginal propensity to consume main foods from a macro point of view，consumption of fruits and vegetables by using the first exponential smoothing method was forecasted.Influencing factors of consumer demand by using ordered multi-classification logistic model based on the survey data of 476 urban households in Urumqi was analyzed.Existing problems in the process of fruit and vegetable supply were found out from perspective of consumers，and some suggestions were put forward.It could provide scientific basis for local government to formulate vegetable supply guarantee strategy and planning，and also provide reference for study of agricultural products consumption.