甘肃省农业现代化水平时空格局与影响因素

采用多指标综合测评法、空间自相关和地理加权回归模型等方法,在构建农业现代化水平评价指标体系的基础上,分析2002—2016年甘肃省农业现代化水平时空分异特征及影响因素。结果表明:1)甘肃省农业现代化水平总体空间分异显著,呈北高南低、西高东低空间特征,且具有较高的稳定性;2)农业现代化水平空间集聚趋势明显,空间自相关引起的结构分异显著,河西地区为高水平集聚区,陇南地区为低水平集聚区,空间关联效应不断增强,并持续表现出空间稳定性特征;3)人均农机化财政支出、公路密度和第一产业固定资产投资总额和城乡居民人均储蓄存款是甘肃省农业现代化水平空间格局演变的重要影响因素。因此,可以从加大财政支农力度、优化财政支农结构和建立农村资金的回流导入机制等方面促进甘肃省农业现代化均衡快速发展。

Spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of agricultural modernization level in Gansu Province

To investigate the spatial differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural modernization level in Gansu Province from 2002 to 2016, an comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed by using multi-index comprehensive evaluation method, spatial autocorrelation and geographical weighted regression model. The results show that: 1)The overall spatial differentiation of agricultural modernization level in Gansu Province is significant and has a high stability, which is high in the north and low in the south, high in the west and low in the east. 2)The horizontal spatial agglomeration trend of agricultural modernization is obvious, and the structure differentiation caused by spatial autocorrelation is significant. Hexi region is a high level agglomeration area, while Longnan region is a low level agglomeration area. The effect of spatial correlation keeps increasing and continues to show the characteristics of spatial stability. 3)The per capita financial expenditure on agricultural mechanization, highway density, total fixed asset investment in the primary industry and per capita savings deposits of urban and rural residents have seriously affected the evolution of spatial pattern of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province. Therefore, a balanced development of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province can be promoted by increasing the financial support for agriculture, optimizing the structural of financial support for agriculture and establishing the backflow mechanism of rural funds.