耕地撂荒的区域差异及驱动因素分析——基于CFD和CHFS农户调查数据的研究

基于CFD和CHFS微观农户数据,利用Ordered Probit模型实证分析农户耕地撂荒的区域差异及驱动因素。研究发现,非粮食主产区显著高于粮食主产区,西部地区显著高于东中部地区;户主老龄结构和身体健康程度以及耕地细碎化对全国农户耕地撂荒影响正向显著,农业劳动力规模、土地转出规模和撂荒机会成本对全国农户耕地撂荒影响负向显著;驱动各地区农户耕地撂荒的因素存在差别。耕地撂荒的根本原因是我国农业弱势地位和农民的老龄化问题,区域差异的原因是区域发展失衡、人口迁徙和"三农"问题的深层次体现。因此要通过促进区域协调发展、优先发展农业农村和全面推进乡村振兴来解决耕地撂荒。

Analysis of Regional Differences and Driving Factors of Farmland Abandonment: A Study Based on CFD and CHFS Farmer Household Data

Based on CFD and CHFS farmer household data, this research experimentally explores the regional differences and determinants of farmland abandonment with the help of the Ordered Probit model. It demonstrates that there are notable regional differences in farmland abandonment, which is more common in western regions than east and central regions, and more common in non-grain-producing areas than major grain-producing areas. Age and health of the household head, farmland fragmentation all have significantly positive effects on farmland abandonment, while agricultural labor scale, scale of land transfer, and opportunity cost of farmland abandonment all have significantly negative effects. The reasons why households abandon their farmland vary from place to place. The weak position of agriculture and the aging of farmers are the primary causes of farmland abandonment, and the underlying causes of the regional differences are a reflection of economic development imbalance, labor migration, and the three rural issues in each region. To address the problem of farmland abandonment, it is necessary to promote the coordinated development of all regions, give high priority to agricultural and rural development, and advance rural revitalization across the board.