基于需水函数的区域水资源需求驱动影响因素分析

根据郑州市1995~2005年国民经济实际用水状况,在定性分析水资源驱动因素的基础上,建立了郑州市农业、工业和生活需水函数,定义了贡献率概念,在需求弹性系数分析的基础上,分析了需求驱动因素,分析结果表明:①这段时期,郑州市用水量呈波动变化趋势,工业和农业用水呈递减趋势,生活用水呈递增的趋势。②在驱动因素中,排在前3位的正驱动因素分别是实际灌溉面积、重轻比和发电量,排在前3位的负驱动因素是农业和工业固定资产的投资、重复利用率和降雨量,抑制重轻比和发电量、改善水资源供水条件、改进工艺、提高用水效率是抑制用水增长的主要原因。③重轻比提高和发电量增加是郑州市工业用水增长的主要原因,影响郑州市农业用水增长的主要原因是实际灌溉面积的增加,随着社会经济的不断发展,郑州市农业用水量将会是减少的趋势。水价的提高和水资源供水条件的改善将会抑制郑州市生活用水量的增加。现阶段水资源管理的核心是改进工艺和提高用水效率。

Analysis on Driving Factors of Regional Water Resources Demand Based on Demand Function

The agriculture,industry and live demand water functions are built based on the qualitative analysis on the driving factors of water resources according to the data of water consumption during 1995~2005 in Zhengzhou city.The contribution rate is defined,and the driving factors are analyzed based on analysis on demand elasticity coefficients.The main conclusions involve: ①The fluctuation tendency of water consumption is found during 1995~2005,and the descending tendency in the industry and agriculture water demand are found,and the increase tendency in live water demand is found in Zhengzhou city.②The top third positive driving factors are irrigation area,ratio of heavy to light industry and generation electricity.The top third negative driving factors are agriculture and industry capital asserts investment,repeated use rate and the precipitation.Controlling the ratio of heavy to light industry and generation electricity,improving water supply condition and technique,enhancing water consumption efficiency are the main reasons of controlling water consumption increasing.③Increasing ration of heavy to light industry and generation electricity play the important role in increasing the industry consumption water in Zhengzhou city,and increasing the irrigation area is the main reason in agriculture water consumption increasing.The agriculture water consumption will be decreased in Zhengzhou city with the development of the economy.Increasing water price and improving water supply condition will control the increasing of live water demand in Zhengzhou city.The management core of water resources is improving technique and increasing water consumption efficiency now.