农业干旱脆弱性模糊综合评价

科学合理地选用评价指标和评估模型对客观真实地评判干旱脆弱性具有重要意义.根据农业干旱脆弱性的发生机制,从自然、社会、经济方面综合考虑选取影响农业干旱脆弱性的指标,建立农业干旱脆弱性评价指标体系,并采用基于熵权的模糊综合评价法,以广西百色市地区为例,对其农业干旱脆弱性程度进行分析评价,根据最大隶属度原则得到综合评估结果.结果表明,广西百色市地区的农业干旱脆弱性程度较严重,这是当地落后的经济水平、恶劣的自然环境以及社会因素综合影响的结果体现.农业干旱脆弱性程度评价结果可为当地政府制订缓解或降低农业干旱脆弱性程度的针对性治理对策提供参考.

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of agricultural drought vulnerability

Studies show that the higher vulnerability degree of hazard-bearing body, the heavier the severity of drought, in the case of the same hazard factor; therefore, it is of great importance that the evaluation index and assessment model be selected scientifically and reasonably so that the drought vulnerability can be assessed objectively and truly. According to the mechanism of agricultural drought vulnerability, this study selected the agricultural drought vulnerability index under comprehensive consideration from the natural, social and economic aspects, established the agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation index system, taking Baise city area of Guangxi as an example. We analyzed and evaluated the agricultural drought vulnerability degree using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy, and obtained the comprehensive assessment results based on the principle of maximum membership degree. The results show that the agricultural drought vulnerability degree of Baise city area is serious, which is the ~＇~ombined effects of the laggard economic level, harsh natural environment and social factors of Baise. The results of agricultural drought vulnerability degree evaluation could provide reference for local governments to take targeted countermeasures to effectively relieve or reduce the agricultural drought vulnerability degree.