西宁冬季日光温室气温变化规律研究

利用青海省大通县日光节能温室的小气候观测数据和同期气象站资料，系统研究日光温室内外温度的变化特征，建立基于逐步回归方法的温室内最高和最低气温预报模型。结果表明：（1）不同天况下温室内气温的日变化规律均呈“单峰”型，且变化幅度为：晴天＞多云＞阴天；（2）不同天况下温室内日最高和最低温度明显高于室外最高和最低温度；（3）相关分析表明，温室内日最高温度和日最低温度与日照百分率的相关性最高，与10 cm地温的相关性最低；（4）建立的模型能较好地预测不同天气条件下温室内最高和最低温度，多云和阴天天气下的模拟效果优于晴天。研究结果为高寒冷地区生产避开低温冷（冻）害，掌握冬季绿叶菜的适播期，及时播种提供决策依据。

Temperature Variation Inside Greenhouse in Winter in Xining

In order to reveal the variation rule of temperature inside and outside the solar greenhouse, using the meteorological data inside and outside the solar greenhouse in Datong County of Qinghai Province, the authors established the maximum and minimum temperature forecasting model based on the stepwise regression method. The results showed that: (1) the daily temperature variation in the greenhouse had a‘single peak’type in different weather types, indicating that the variation amplitude was sunny＞cloudy＞overcast days; (2) the daily maximum and minimum temperature inside the greenhouse was significantly higher than that outside; (3) the correlation analysis manifested that the correlation between the daily maximum and minimum temperature and the percentage of sunshine inside and outside the greenhouse was the highest, while the correlation between the daily maximum and minimum temperature and the 10 cm ground temperature was the lowest; (4) the model could well forecast the maximum and minimum temperature inside the greenhouse in different weather types, and the simulation result in cloudy and overcast days was better than that in sunny days. The result provided a scientific basis for avoiding the low temperature (freezing) damage in agricultural production in alpine cold regions, and mastering the suitable sowing time of winter vegetables.