湖北省植烟区精细化安全移栽期区划

为确保湖北省植烟区的烟叶能安全移栽，采用多元回归、反距离权重插值等方法建立了植烟区安全移栽期推算模型，获得1:5 万栅格点上的安全移栽期日序，并通过图层运算确定了不同烟区不同移栽时段海拔高度的范围。结果表明：恩施、宜昌、十堰和襄阳4 个烟区中，（1）海拔高度分别在715 km、538 km、507 km和419 km以下的区域烟苗应在4月20日左右移栽；（2）海拔高度范围分别为715~1013 km、538~833 km、507~817 km和419~720 km的区域烟苗应在4 月21—30 日移栽；（3）海拔高度范围分别为1013~1312 km、833~1126 km、817~1124 km和720~1021km的区域烟苗应在5 月1—10 日移栽；（4）海拔高度范围分别为1312~1606 km、1126~1420 km、1124~1432 km 和1021~1325 km 的区域烟苗应在5 月11—20 日移栽；（5）海拔高度分别在1606 km、1420 km、1432 km和1325 km以上的区域烟苗应在5 月20日左右移栽。通过模型计算的安全移栽期比目前经验移栽期有所延迟，减小了烟叶低温早花以及高温逼熟的风险。

Refined Regionalization of Safe Transplanting Dates for Tobacco Growing Area in Hubei Province

The paper aims to ensure safe tobacco transplanting in tobacco growing areas of Hubei Province. A reckoning model for predicting the safe transplanting dates of tobacco seedlings in these areas was built by the multivariate regression analysis and the inverse distance weighting (IDW). Then, day sequences of the safe transplanting dates were obtained. Meanwhile, the altitude ranges for different transplanting periods in different transplanting regions were determined by the spatial-overlay technology. The results showed that: in four tobacco-growing areas of Enshi, Yichang, Shiyan and Xiangyang, seedlings should be transplanted: (1) around April 20 in the fields with a respective altitude below 715 km, 538 km, 507 km and 419 km; (2) from April 21 to 30 in the fields with a respective altitude of 715-1013 km, 538-833 km, 507-817 km and 419-720 km; (3) from May 1 to 10 in the fields with a respective altitude of 1013-1312 km, 833-1126 km, 817-1124 km and 720-1021 km; (4) from May 11 to 20 in the fields with a respective altitude of 1312-1606 km, 1126-1420 km, 1124-1432 km and 1021-1325 km; (5) around May 20 in the fields with a respective altitude above 1606 km, 1420 km, 1432 km and 1325 km. The safe transplanting dates obtained from this reckoning model were later than the present ones, which could reduce tobacco production risk caused by early-flowering induced by low temperature and maturity induced by high temperature.