自然植被分布预测研究进展

预测自然植被的空间分布格局,对于生物保护、气候变化、生境管理、生态恢复决策等具有重要的实践指导意义。在对现有研究深入分析的基础上,认为植被格局不仅取决于气候,而且其他环境条件如地形、土壤等对植被格局的形成也具有重要作用;随着空间分析理论与方法在生态学中的广泛应用,多因素综合分析植被分布格局是未来植被-环境关系研究的重要趋势;在预测精度方面,非参数模型的预测结果一般比参数模型较好,如神经网络系统、GAM模型等;而遥感及GIS的应用,则为在较大尺度综合研究气候、土壤、地形等因素与植被分布格局的关系提供了较为丰富的数据源和先进的分析手段,并促进一些较复杂模型的建立和应用,为理解大尺度生态系统提供基础;我国植被-环境关系研究已取得了较为丰富的研究成果,但在数据的时效性、研究方法、研究尺度与因子选择方面仍有较大的深入研究空间。

Review of the studies on the prediction of natural vegetation distribution

Prediction of natural vegetation distribution can provide valuable references information for the biology conservation,climatic change,habitat management,and ecological rehabilitation.After careful analysis of the previous studies,this paper outlined the main trend of the studies on vegetation-environment relationships: the vegetation distribution is controlled not only by climate but also other factors such as topography and soil,and multiple factors analysis will be used more and more in the vegetation-environment relationship studies;in terms of precision of predictive models,the nonparametric models such as neural networks and general additive model(GAM) can give a better prediction than other models;the application of remote sensing and geographical information system can provide abundance of data and suitable techniques to analyze synthetically the vegetation-environment relationships on large scales,and promote the development of some more advanced models;No doubt that more progress has been made in China,yet there are still more space for the further development in the data updating,modeling method,and choice of scale and variables.