中国马铃薯生产风险区划实证研究

为探寻中国马铃薯生产风险的分布特征及适宜的种植区域，以1992—2013年中国19个马铃薯主产省的数据，综合考虑马铃薯生产过程中自然、市场和技术等风险，以减产率、变异系数、减产率小于10%和30%的发生概率以及种植规模指数等9个变量构建风险区划的指标体系，利用非参数核密度法计算风险发生概率，基于聚类法进行风险区划的实证。结果表明：中国马铃薯种植区被分为5个风险区，中国北部地区马铃薯生产风险较高，中西部地区的生产风险较低，南部地区的生产风险中等。究其原因，是由于马铃薯品种的混种、南北地区气温、降水迥异导致。研究结果为未来中国马铃薯生产布局的调整和防灾减灾措施的制定提供决策依据。

An Empirical Study on Risk Zonation of Potato Production in China:Based on the Data of 19 Main Potato Producing Provinces

In order to explore the distribution characteristics of potato production risk and the suitable planting areas in China, data of 19 Chinese potato producing provinces from 1992 to 2013 were used to conduct the study. Taking natural, market and technology risks into consideration, 9 variables including yield reduction rate, variable coefficient, probability of yield reduction rate less than 10% and 30%, planting scale index, etc. were chosen to construct the index system of risk zonation. Non parametric kernel density method was used to calculate the risk occurrence probability, and clustering method was used to conduct the empirical analysis of risk zonation. The results showed that potato planting area in China was divided into five risk areas. Potato production was higher, medium and lower in the northern region, southern region and central and western regions of China, respectively. Different potato varieties, temperature and precipitation difference in north and south could be the causes. The results can provide decision making basis for the adjustment of potato production distribution and prevention of natural disasters in the future.