气候变暖背景下长治市极端降水变化趋势 |
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引用本文: | 张红英[,李晶晶,段娟,李毓富,赵双巧,尹振保. 气候变暖背景下长治市极端降水变化趋势[J]. 中国农学通报, 2016, 32(32): 137-143. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16040026 |
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作者姓名: | 张红英[ 李晶晶 段娟 李毓富 赵双巧 尹振保 |
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作者单位: | 山西省长治市气象局,山西省长治市气象局,山西省长治县气象局,山西省晋城市气象局,山西省长治市气象局,山西省长治市气象局 |
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基金项目: | Key words: climate warming; extreme precipitation; frequency of occurrence; variation tendency |
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摘 要: | 为了研究气候变化背景下长治市极端降水的变化趋势,掌握其变化规律,本文使用1961—2015年长治市所属11个县站的逐日降水和气温资料,对降水极端气候事件的分析侧重于大雨、暴雨、大暴雨、大雪和暴雪的变化特征,研究不同级别频数的年际变化规律。利用降水要素倾向率计算、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendal突变分析等对长治气候变暖前后各级别降水频数进行分析。结果表明:1、长治市年平均气温增高背景下,各量级的降水日变化不尽相同,其中以小雪日的增加和小雨日的减少最为显著;有降水日(日降水量≥0.1 mm)呈减少趋势,同时大暴雨、大雪和暴雪日数呈不同程度的增加。2、暴雨、大暴雨和大雪、暴雪都有25~30年的低频振荡周期,在高频部分有准两年振荡周期,在整个时间序列中各级别降水还具有4年、6年和8年左右的周期。3、暴雨极端降水在1962年发生突变;大雪日数突变年份在1990年前后,2006年之后大雪日数增加趋势更加显著。其他级别降水日数无明显突变。
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关 键 词: | 柑橘 柑橘 柑橘黄龙病 发生流行 扩散模型 |
收稿时间: | 2016-04-06 |
修稿时间: | 2016-07-04 |
Trend of extreme precipitation in Changzhi cityunder the background of climate warming |
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Abstract: | Abstract: The paper aims to research the change trend of extreme precipitation of Changzhi city under the background of climate change, to grasp its change law. This paper uses daily precipitation and temperature data over 11 county stations of Changzhi city from 1961 to 2015.And it focus on the study on extreme precipitation climate events, mainly on the variation features of heavy rain, torrential rain, heavy torrential rain, heavy snow and blizzard, as well as the interannual variability of different frequency grades. Using the factors of precipitation trend rate calculation、Morlet wavelet analysis、Mann-Kendal mutation analysis and so on to analyze precipitation frequency at all levels of Changzhi before and after the climate warming. The results showed that: 1、Changzhi city under the background of annual average temperature increase, the level of daily variation of precipitation is not the same.The most significant is the increase of light snow day and the reduce of rain day.The precipitation day (daily precipitation ≥0.1 mm) showed a trend of decrease.At the same time torrential rain, snow and blizzard days show varying degrees of increase. 2、Torrential rain, heavy torrential rain and heavy snow, blizzard has 25 to 30 years of oscillation period, in the high frequency part with two years period of oscillation, at all levels in the time series of precipitation also has 4 years, 6 years and 8 years cycle respectively.3、Extreme precipitation in 1962 changed abruptly. Abrupt change of heavy snow days happens around 1990 year, after 2006 year the heavy snow days increased even more significantly. Other grades of precipitation days have no obvious abrupt change. |
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Keywords: | climateSwarming extremeSprecipitation frequencySofSoccurrence variationStendency |
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