基于JC法的施工导流标准多目标风险决策研究

导流标准的选择关系到整个水电工程的造价和工期1]。确定导流标准时，要综合考虑工程投资、建设工期、风险率等多个目标，从整体上优化选择导流标准。本文建立基于JC法的风险率计算模型，这种方法简便、准确，并可适用于非线性极限状态方程的情况。最后以某实际水利水电工程为例，计算不同重现期条件下各方案的风险率，进而建立多目标风险决策模型，最终选定此工程的导流标准，计算结果表明，所建模型是有效的，且精确较高，可以为工程建设提供理论依据。

Multi-objective Risk Model of Optimal Construction Diversion Standards Based on JC Method

Diversion standard selection to the entire hydropower project cost and schedules. Determine the diversion standard, to consider the project investment, construction period, the risk of multiple targets, from the overall optimization of diversion standard. This paper establishes the calculation model of risk rate based on JC method, this method is simple, accurate, and can be applied to the nonlinear limit state equation. Taking an actual hydropower project as an example, the methods of the risk rate under the condition of different return, then establish multi-objective risk decision model of diversion standard, and ultimately selected for this project, the calculation results show that, the model is valid, and the precision is high, can provide a theoretical basis for engineering construction.