| 我国薯类作物生产周期波动测定及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘合光,谢思娜. 我国薯类作物生产周期波动测定及影响因素分析[J]. 中国蔬菜, 2013, 1(22): 15-19 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘合光 谢思娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项（0052013004） |
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| 摘 要： | 运用HP 滤波法对我国1949～2011 年薯类作物产量的波动周期进行测定和分析。将我国薯类作物产量波动划分为14 个波动阶段，平均波动周期为4 a。分析结果表明：薯类作物播种面积波动较单位面积产量波动对总产量波动的影响大；相对于内部传导机制，外部冲击如病虫害等因素的影响对薯类作物生产波动的影响较大。
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| 关 键 词： | 薯类作物 生产波动 HP 滤波法 |
Measurement of Tuber Crop’s Production Cycle Fluctuation in China and Its Influencing Factors |
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| LIU He-Guang,XIE Si-Na. Measurement of Tuber Crop’s Production Cycle Fluctuation in China and Its Influencing Factors[J]. China Vegetables, 2013, 1(22): 15-19 |
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| Authors: | LIU He-Guang XIE Si-Na |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development，Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Beijing 100081，China |
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| Abstract: | Periods of fluctuation in tuber crop’s production are measured and analyzed in this paper，using H-P Filtering Method．The results indicate that there are 14 fluctuation phases，and the average fluctuation period length is 4 years．It is found out that fluctuation in sowing area has bigger impact on yield than fluctuation per unit area yield，and external shocks including diseases and insect pest’s damage have more significant impact on fluctuations of tuber crop’s production． |
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| Keywords: | Tuber crops Production fluctuation H-P Filtering method |
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