Influence of Climate Change on Cotton Production Potential Based on DSSAT Model Simulation

Objective] Analyze the influence of climate change on cotton potential productivity in Shihezi region by using decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) model, so as to provide thoughts for sustainable development of cotton planting management. Method] Based on the field test data in Shihezi area, this study verified the applicability of DSSAT V4.7 model, simulated cotton light and temperature potential productivity and climate production potential, and analyzed the impact of climate change on potential productivity on cotton. Results] After the adjustment of variety parameters, the simulated value of the model is in good agreement with the experimental measured value, so the model can be used in the study of cotton in Shihezi. In the past 51 years, the average temperature and total solar radiation in the growth period of cotton in Shihezi have shown a very significant trend of increasing, while the rainfall change is not significant and the trend of climate change is partly various in different growth stages of cotton. The actual yield and light and temperature potential productivity of cotton have shown a very significant improving trend; the average value of production potential was 3.6 times than the actual yield, and due to the lack of precipitation in this area, the simulation results of climate production potential are not good. Cotton light and temperature potential productivity has a strong correlation with the meteorological factors in the growth period, and has a very significant positive correlation with the monthly average minimum temperature and the monthly total solar radiation. But the potential productivity has no significant correlation with most monthly rainfall and some monthly average maximum temperature. Therefore, the increasing of temperature and total solar radiation are conducive to the production of cotton. Conclusion] Climate change has a positive effect on cotton yield and production potential in Shihezi.