基于辐射和温度的ET0模型在吐鲁番地区的比较与修正

利用吐鲁番地区3个气象站2000—2015年逐日气象资料,以FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(FAO-56 PM)模型为标准,对6种ET_0模型(M-A模型、P-T模型、M-H模型、H-S模型、Traj模型和B-H模型)进行评价并修正,采用均方根误差(RMSE)、绝对平均误差(MAE)、平均相对误差(MRE)评价指标和Wilcoxon非参数检验法比较年、月尺度上各模型修正前后的估算精度,以筛选适用吐鲁番地区ET_0简化估算模型。结果表明:吐鲁番地区ET_0的主要影响因子是R_s(太阳辐射),其次是e_s(饱和水汽压)和R_n(作物表面净辐射);修正前,年尺度上,M-H模型的估算精度最高;月尺度上,各模型误差较大且与FAO-56 PM模型存在显著差异,适用性较差;修正后,各模型在年、月尺度上的精度均有明显提高,无显著差异,其中修正后的P-T、M-H和B-H模型估算精度最高,可作为吐鲁番地区ET_0简化估算模型。

Comparison and modification of ET0 models based on radiation and temperature in Turpan region

By using the daily climatic data of three meteorological stations from 2000 to 2015 in Turpan region, and taking FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) model as the standard model, six ET₀ models (M-A model, P-T model, M-H model, H-S model, Traj model, and B-H model) were evaluated and modified. The estimation accuracy were analyzed with root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE), and non|parametric Wilcoxon test at yearly and monthly scales, respectively.The purpose was to find a simple and accurate ET₀ model in Turpan region.The results indicated that the main meteorological factor affecting ET₀ was R_s (solar ridiation) in Turpan region,followed by e_s (saturated water pressure) and R_n (crop surface net radiation). Before the modification, the M-H model had the highest estimation accuracy on the yearly scale.On the monthly scale, the errors of all models were large and there were significant differences with the calculation results of the FAO-56 PM model, and the applicability was poor in Turpan region. After the modification, the accuracy of each model on the yearly and monthly scales was significantly improved, and there was no significant difference with the FAO-56 PM model. The modified P-T, M-H, and B-H models had the highest estimation accuracy and can be used as simple and accurate ET₀ models in Turpan region.