黄河流域2008-2018年可持续发展评价与系统协调发展分析

目的] 对黄河流域可持续发展与系统协调发展进行评价和分析，为黄河流域的可持续发展提供理论参考。方法] 基于资源、经济、社会、生态环境和科技5个系统选取37项指标构建黄河流域可持续发展指标体系，以2008—2018年黄河流域9个省份为研究对象，利用熵权法、灰色关联分析法综合确定指标权重，并计算5个子系统的耦合度与耦合协调度，最后，对其耦合协调度使用灰色GM （1.1）模型进行预测。结果] 黄河流域的可持续发展综合评价指数在2008年和2018年分别为0.214 5和0.410 2，整体上呈现上升趋势；2008—2018年9个省份的系统耦合度整体呈现上升趋势；2008年有4个省份的耦合度处于磨合阶段，有4个省份的耦合度处于高水平磨合阶段，只有甘肃省的耦合度处于拮抗阶段。2018年耦合度发生改善，9个省份的耦合度都处于高水平磨合阶段，但耦合度数值各省间存在差距。9个省份的耦合协调度未来7 a的发展均为上升态势。结论] 黄河流域的可持续发展水平总体上逐年改善，但在空间分布上黄河流域各省的耦合协调度指数值存在差距。

Sustainable Development Evaluation and System Coordination Development Analysis of Yellow River Basin During 2008-2018

Objective] The sustainable development and the system coordinated development of the Yellow River basin was evaluated and analyzed, in order to provide theoretical reference for the sustainable development of the Yellow River basin. Methods] According to 5 systems of resources, economy, society, ecological environment and science and technology, 37 indexes were selected to construct the sustainable development index system of the Yellow River basin. Nine provinces along the Yellow River basin from 2008 to 2018 were selected as the research objects. Entropy weight method and grey correlation analysis method were used to determine the index weight, and the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the five subsystems were calculated. Finally, the grey GM(1.1) model was used to predict the coupling coordination degree. Results] The comprehensive evaluation index of sustainable development in the Yellow River basin was 0.214 5 and 0.410 2 in 2008 and 2018, respectively, showing an upward trend on the whole. From 2008 to 2018, the system coupling degree of the 9 provinces showed an upward trend. In 2008, the coupling degree of 4 provinces was in the running in stage, and the other 4 provinces was in the high running in stage, only the coupling degree of Gansu Province was in the antagonistic stage. In 2018, the coupling degree of all the 9 provinces was improved, and the coupling degree of the 9 provinces was at a high level of running in, but the coupling degree bettwen the provinces was different. The coupling coordination degree of the 9 provinces would be increased in the next 7 years. Conclusion] The level of sustainable development in the Yellow River basin has been improved year by year, but there are differences in spatial coupling and coordination among provinces in the Yellow River basin.