甘肃省淤地坝工程的溃坝风险评价模型

目的] 运用淤地坝工程溃坝风险评价模型，确定淤地坝工程发生溃决可能性的大小，为淤地坝运行管理提供技术支撑。方法] 通过调研和对溃坝风险问题的梳理，形成淤地坝工程溃坝风险评价指标体系，运用层次分析法确定指标权重，构建了甘肃省淤地坝工程溃坝风险评价模型。结果] 该模型包含水文风险（B₁）、运行风险（B₂）、管理风险（B₃）、工程风险（B₄）4个风险类型模块（其权重分别为0.12，0.13，0.12，0.63）及其下的16个具体评价指标；水面/泥面距拦泥坝高的距离（D₁）、剩余淤积库容（D₄）、有无3个管理负责人（D₇）、坝体变形（D₁₂）分别是4个风险类型模块的最大权重评价指标；对各指标的评分标准作了规定，依据综合风险得分将输出的风险等级和预警等级各划分为3级。结论] 淤地坝工程溃坝风险评价模型由输入、分析和输出3个模块组成，层次清晰，架构明确。评估模型的构建可对汛期淤地坝工程风险的评价提供实时预警数据。

Risk Assessment Model for Dam Break in Gansu Province

Objective] By constructing risk assessment model for dam break, the possibility of dam break was determined to provide technical support for check dam operation and management. Methods] The risk assessment index system of check dam engineering was established through investigation and analysis of dam break risk problems. The weights of indexes were determined by analytic hierarchy process and the risk assessment model of dam break in Gansu Province was constructed. Results] The model includes hydrological risk indexes (B₁), operation risk indexes (B₂), management risk indexes (B₃), and engineering risk indexes (B₄), a total of four risk types modules (with weights of 0.12, 0.13, 0.12, 0.63, respectively) and 16 specific evaluation indexes. Distance between water surface/mud surface and the height of dam(D₁), the available silting tank volume (D₄), the presence or absence of three management directors (D₇), and the dam deformation (D₁₂) are the maximum weight indexes of the four risk index modules. The scoring standard of each index was stipulated in the study, and the output risk level as well as early warning level were divided into 3 levels according to the comprehensive risk score. Conclusion] The risk assessment model of check dam is composed of three modules: input, analysis, and output, which has clear hierarchy and structure. The construction of the assessment model can provide real-time warning data for risk assessment of check dam before rainfall events.