| 东部地区水产品中长期供求的趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 高健,陶宝山,楼永,张相国. 东部地区水产品中长期供求的趋势[J]. 上海海洋大学学报, 2002, 0(1): 68-71 |
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| 作者姓名： | 高健 陶宝山 楼永 张相国 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]上海水产大学经济贸易学院，上海200090 [2]浙江林学院，浙江临安311300 |
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| 基金项目： | 联合国粮农组织资助《中国水产品中长期供求预测》课题的一部分 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过分析我国东部地区水产品的生产供给潜力和消费水平，探讨了我国东部地区水产品流通和供求的平衡状态。在此基础上，用计量分析软件包Micro TSP回归分析了人均消0费量与人均GDP，人均消费量与时间序（T）的线形和对数关系；同时试图用生产历史统计数据推算人均消费量并进行预测。经过拟合优选，建立了以时间为解释变量，以水产品人均消费量作为被解释变量的回归方程（Y＝A＋BT），并用该回归方程预测了东部地区中长期水产品的需求状况。
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| 关 键 词： | 东部地区 水产品 长期供求 供求预测 消费水平 渔业生产 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001-10-31 |
Supply-demand estimations of aquatic products on middle-long term of East region of China |
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| GAO Jian,TAO Bao shan,LOU Yong,ZHANG Xiang Guo. Supply-demand estimations of aquatic products on middle-long term of East region of China[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University, 2002, 0(1): 68-71 |
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| Authors: | GAO Jian TAO Bao shan LOU Yong ZHANG Xiang Guo |
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| Abstract: | By reviewing the present situation of fishery production and demand for aquatic products, the paper studies circulation and supply-demand's balance of aquatic products of East distruction of China. The Micro TSP was used to analyse relationships between GDP and demand for aquatic products. The relationship between time series and the demand for aquatic products is also studied. The equation (Y=A+BT) is set up for estimating the demands for aquatic products in East region of China. |
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| Keywords: | East region of China aquatic products supply demand estimation |
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