| 潍坊市未来气候变化及其对小麦生育期和产量的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁静,郑学山,胡 鲲,徐剑平,孙丽娟. 潍坊市未来气候变化及其对小麦生育期和产量的影响研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(36): 271-274. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1154 |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁静 郑学山 胡 鲲 徐剑平 孙丽娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省潍坊市气象局,,,, |
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| 基金项目： | 潍坊市气象局气象科学技术研究项目“潍坊市气候变化及其对小麦生产的影响研究”(2011wfqxkt05)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究潍坊市未来气候变化趋势，分析其对当地小麦生产的影响，利用区域气候模式PRECIS对2021—2050年潍坊市气温及降水量进行模拟，并将气象数据输入作物模型，对未来气候变化下小麦的生长状况进行模拟。结果表明，未来潍坊市将会出现气温升高、降水增多的趋势；气候变暖会导致潍坊市小麦生育期提前，产量降低；若考虑CO2的肥效作用，小麦会增产。
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| 关 键 词： | 区划 区划 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-04-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-04-21 |
Study on Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Growth Period and Yield of Wheat in Weifang |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang, and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production, the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS. And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future. The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction. If taking into account the effect of CO2, the yield of wheat would increase. |
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| Keywords: | climate change wheat growth period yield impact |
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